AN ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF RELIGION AND TRIBALISM ON THE OUTCOME OF THE 2023 GENERAL ELECTIONS

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of the study

Nigeria is characterized by its diverse ethnic and religious composition. According to Onapajo (2016), empirical evidence has substantiated the assertion that Nigerians rank as the ninth most religious population globally. The primary religious factions include adherents of Christianity, Islam, and African Traditional Religions. According to Jega (2017), the Islamic faith has a strong position in the north-eastern and north-western regions of the nation, while Christianity is the prevailing religion in the southwestern, south-eastern, and southern parts of the country. Churches and mosques are prevalent in several prominent thoroughfares inside Nigerian towns and cities. Nigeria is home to a group of clergy members who have significant wealth and wield considerable influence, placing them among the most affluent and prominent clergy globally.

Notably, the five wealthiest pastors in Africa are from Nigeria, with their individual net worths spanning from US$10 million to US$150 million (Onapajo, 2016). Religion has had significant influence throughout Nigerian society. Hence, it is indisputable that religion has played a significant role in all phases of Nigerian elections, as shown by its presence, whether concealed or overt, throughout the electoral process (Ajiboye, 2015). The Nigerian government has effectively carried out the elections of 2023, despite encountering challenges with the utilisation of card reader technology. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) had procured these devices with the intention of ensuring that only eligible and authorised voters participated in the elections. However, it is often said that the federal government bears responsibility for the perceived lack of credibility in electoral processes, unless one acknowledges the significant impact of ethnicity and religion in Nigerian politics.

Furthermore, Nigeria is often recognized as a very diverse nation, exhibiting significant heterogeneity within its population. Nigeria, with a population above 186 million individuals according to Worldometers (2015), has the distinction of being the most populous black country. It is home to more than 250 ethnic groupings, each including many sub-groups (Olayode, 2015). Notwithstanding these attributes, the political landscape of the nation is mostly controlled by three prominent ethnic factions, namely Yoruba, Hausa, and Igbo. There are further sub-groups that exist, however they are often seen as minority populations. The presence of sub-groups inside larger and more influential groups gives rise to concerns over the potential for minority groups to be dominated by the main ethnic groupings. Therefore, the political arena is used by various ethnic groups and sub-groups in order to maintain the hegemony of the majority groups or to counter and oppose the potential dominance of the minority groups. Presidential elections in the post-colonial period of Nigeria have consistently engendered tensions, fears, and controversies, notably among the voters. This phenomenon is linked to the observation that electoral campaigns are often marked by the dissemination of hate speech, often including implicit references to ethnicity. The 2023 presidential election in Nigeria elicited heightened tension and controversy compared to previous instances. In addition to taking place at a time of instability partly engineered by the Boko Haram group, the upcoming 2023 general elections have been described as the most fiercely contested election in post-colonial Nigeria. It has been said that before the elections, there was a notable escalation in hostility between the northern and southern regions. According to Olayode (2015), the northerners regarded this as a favourable chance to win the presidency, which they believed would address the alleged economic marginalization of their area. The aforementioned reasons exacerbated the longstanding ethnic, regional, and religious divisions that have been prevalent in Nigerian politics since the country gained independence (ibid.). The researcher therefore sought to assess  the impact of religion and tribalism on the outcome of the 2023 general elections.

1.2  Statement of the problem

The voting behaviour of the Nigerian electorate is significantly influenced by factors such as ethnicity and religion. The federal government consistently emphasizes the importance of prioritizing national interests above ethnic and religious factors, it is evident that no Nigerian politician can secure electoral victory without the backing of their respective ethnic group (Obiefuna, 2018). This is the reason why a majority of politicians often priorities fulfilling the requirements of their ethnic nationalities, even if it comes at the expense of national interest.

Regrettably, the current political framework in Nigeria lacks provisions that would enable individuals from minority ethnic groups to assume the presidency without garnering support from the dominant ethnic nations inside the nation. This factor potentially contributes to the persistent demands for secession and the plea for a revision of the existing framework of the Nigerian political system by some ethnic factions inside the nation. The press, in its role as an ombudsman, has the potential to function as a central point of convergence, facilitating the resolution of divisions that exist between different ethnic nations and religious organizations inside Nigeria, thus the need to assess the impact of religion and tribalism on the outcome of the 2023 general elections.

1.3  Objectives of the study

The general objective of the study is to assess the impact of religion and tribalism on the outcome of the 2023 general elections. The specific objectives is as follows:

1. Determine the extent of religion and tribalism manifestations during the 2023 election.

2. Determine the extent religion and tribalism influenced political mobilization during the 2023 election.

3. Determine the extent religion and tribalism influenced voters turnout during the 2023 election.

4. Determine whether religion and tribalism affected credibility of the 2023 election.

1.4  Research questions

The following questions will guide the study:

1. What is  the extent of religion and tribalism manifestations during the 2023 election?

2. What is the extent religion and tribalism influenced political mobilization during the 2023 election?

3.  How did religion and tribalism influenced voters turnout during the 2023 election?

4. Does religion and tribalism affect the credibility of the 2023 election?

1.5 Significance of the study

The assessment of the impact of religion and tribalism on the outcome of the 2023 general elections will be revealed to the government at various level, religious organizations,  electoral bodies and media houses. Also, the findings will enlighten Nigerian populace on how deep the issue of religion and tribalism has affected the Nigerian entity whereby in  every political that campaign the issue of religion and tribalism always raises it ugly head.

Additionally, subsequent researchers will use it as a literature review. This means that other students who may decide to conduct studies in this area will have the opportunity to use this study as available literature that can be subjected to critical review. Invariably, the result of the study contributes immensely to the body of academic knowledge with regards to the impact of religion and tribalism on the outcome of 2023 general elections.

1.6 Scope of the study

The scope of this study is boarded on an assessment of the impact of religion and tribalism on the outcome of the 2023. Theoretically, this study will discuss is  the extent of religion and tribalism manifestations during the 2023 election, the extent religion and tribalism influenced political mobilization during the 2023 election, how religion and tribalism influenced voters turnout during the 2023 election and religion and tribalism affect the credibility of the 2023 election.

Geographically, the study will be delimited to people in Itu local government, Akwa Ibom state, Nigeria.

1.8 Limitation of the study

In the course of carrying out this study, the researcher experienced some constraints, which included time constraints, financial constraints, language barriers, and the attitude of the respondents.

In addition, there was the element of researcher bias. Here, the researcher possessed some biases that may have been reflected in the way the data was collected, the type of people interviewed or sampled, and how the data gathered was interpreted thereafter. The potential for all this to influence the findings and conclusions could not be downplayed.

More so, the findings of this study are limited to the sample population in the study area, hence they may not be suitable for use in comparison to other schools, local governments, states, and other countries in the world.

In quest of carrying out this research work the researcher was not able to carry out this work in a more conclusive standard due to the following limitation.

1.9 Definition of terms

Religion: the belief in and worship of a superhuman power or powers, especially a God or gods.

Tribalism: loyalty to a tribe or other social group especially when combined with strong negative feelings for people outside the group

Elections: a formal and organized choice by vote of a person for a political office or other position.

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