A CRITICAL EXAMINATION OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE AS A DETERMINANT OF ELECTORAL OUTCOME IN NIGERIA

(WITH FOCUS ON 2023 GENERAL ELECTIONS IN LAGOS STATE)

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1. Background of the study

The electoral process has caused unjustified political instability in many African nations, including Nigeria, despite the fact that the electoral process is meant to contribute to democratic consolidation in any given country. According to Tijjani (2015), election is a process in which the people pick their leaders, signal their policies and programme preferences, and, as a result, invest a government with the ability to rule. According to Osakwe (2019) define election as a process of selecting individuals to occupy particular public posts through choices made by the voter; those citizens who are entitled to vote under the rules and procedures of the electoral system. According to Jinadu (2019), election outcome is established by the formal process when citizens choose a representative for public office or adopting or rejecting a political viewpoint, which is often done in any democratic setting where individuals may be elected to various positions for a certain period of time. Although the importance of elections under a democratic system of government cannot be emphasized, the process of electing individuals to public office is getting increasingly difficult in many nations throughout the world, particularly in developing countries like Nigeria.

Whereas it is true that elections give electorates chance to vote for individuals and parties that will reflect their various interests when its process is marred by wide range violence and conflict, this is capable of ruining the outcome. According to Uhunmwbangho (2018), political violence is a recurring phenomenon in Nigerian democracy's never-ending narrative of violence, which began with the First Republic and continues until the current fourth democratic government. According to Albert (2007), political violence encompasses all types of coordinated threats aiming at frightening, hurting, or blackmailing a political stakeholder or opponent prior to, during, or after an election with the objective of determining, delaying, or influencing a political process. Similarly Jinadu (2019) averred that political violence includes all types of riots, protests, party conflicts, political assassinations, looting, arson, thuggery, and abduction that occur before, during, and after elections. Political violence (conflict) is defined by Fischer (2002) as any random or organised act that seeks to determine, delay, or otherwise influence an electoral process through threat, verbal intimidation, hate speech, disinformation, physical assault, forced "protection", blackmail, property destruction, or assassination.

Significantly, Nigeria has not had the good fortune to organise elections that are free, fair, and credible. Despite its vast potential, Nigeria, with a population of over 190 million people and significant natural resources, has been plagued by a succession of political upheavals from the first republic to the fourth republic. Notably, seven presidential elections have been held under Nigeria's current fourth republic presidential democracy (1999,2003,2007,2011,2015,2019,2023), all of which have been plagued by violence before, during, and after the vote. Evidently, Osakwe (2019) metioned that since independence, the tendencies that interact with the Electoral Board's generation of election results in Nigeria have not been properly investigated and explained. These patterns differ and have been linked to the underlying cause of the election violence.

1.2 Statement of the problem

The just completed 2023 Nigerian presidential elections marked a turning point in the nation's political history by allowing a wide range of candidates to compete for federal and state legislative offices without an established incumbent in those positions. Nevertheless, Ogheneakoke, (2023) opined that the election was held against a backdrop of intense hostilities between political parties (APC,LP,PD, and NNPP) as well as a number of converging security issues that impact every area of Nigeria and the regular holding of elections. However, party militias, criminal gangs, and other armed organizations used violence in the instance of Lagos state, according to Sofekun, Oyakhiromen, Ige, and Obayemi (2022), to repress opponents, discourage competitor candidates from standing, and influence the electoral process. For example, INEP recorded over 134 attacks on its offices or personnel (Gavin, 2023).

Since Lagos state is an APC state, the governor andhis allly saw give the APC presidential candidate greater attentio this resulted to an unfair play whereby the party agents and media environment were not permitted to project the Labour Party candidate before to the election on February 25. Along with numerous allegations against partisan media organisations and political candidates declining media appearances, some candidates were charged with inciting hate speech and escalating inter-communal and tribal tensions, putting the nation at risk of escalating violence in an election that has a long history of violence since its independence in 1960.

The pre-elections were marred by electoral violence. In the 12 months preceding the election, over 200 violent events had been recorded involving party members and supporters, resulting in nearly 100 reported fatalities (Serwat & Carboni, 2023). This corresponded largely with the run-ups to the previous two election years, with over 150 events and more than 100 reported death between 2018 and 2019, and an estimated 115 events and over 90 death between 2014 and 2015. Similarly, on the election day, “political thugs” were used to destroy election materials in Eti-Osa, some armed men inflicted injury on electorate who voted against their candidate, several polling unit recorded that they were not allowed to vote for their candidates. There were rumours that important election paperwork were sent to the wrong locations, which contributed to the observed delays in the beginning of voting.

According to Ogundele and Afolayan (2023), the 2023 general election in Lagos Statw was also be marked by a considerable quantity of violence in a number of electorates, with electoral thugs stealing ballot boxes, ballots being burned or destroyed, polling places being vandalised. Power-hungry politicians frequently sponsor unemployed youths, thugs, and blatant illiterates to carry out assaults on their perceived political opponents with the goal of manipulating election results to their own advantage. Yet, escalating violence against party members and election officials as well as criminal and regional activities allude to potential weaknesses in the post-election period.

Undoubtedly, a truly representative form of government must rely on election integrity as an honest, transparent and accurate method of assessing popular will at all levels of government, howbeit, the opposite has been the case for the Nigeria Presidential Election, where Nigerian politicians do not follow the appropriate electoral rules even as their eagerness to gain political power drives them to use all means available to achieve their goal, regardless of the regulations. Their activity eventually leads to them attacking everyone who gets in their way, which leads to assassination, kidnapping, thuggery bloodshed which is capable of influencingt the election outcome. Although various studies have been undertaken on election violence, This study shall make an indepth analysis of how political violence tend to mar electoral outcome with particular focus on Nigeria 2023 General Elections in Lagos State.

1.3 Objective of the study

The broad objective of this study focuses on a critical examination of political violence as a determinant of electoral outcome in Nigeria (with focus on 2023 general elections in Lagos State). Other specific objectives includes:

1. To examine whether there is prevalence of political violence in Lagos State in the just concluded 2023 presidential elections.

2. To investigate the types of political violence witnessed in Lagos State in the just concluded 2023 presidential elections

3. To ascertain whether political violence exerts a significance influence on electoral outcome.

4. To ascertain the effect of political violence exerts influence on electoral outcome

1.4 Research Question

1. Was there prevalence of political violence in Lagos State in the just concluded 2023 presidential elections?

2. What are the types of political violence witnessed in Lagos State in the just concluded 2023 presidential elections?

3. Does political violence exerts a significance influence on electoral outcome?

4. What are the effect of political violence exerts influence on electoral outcome?

1.5 Hypotheses of the Study

Ho1:Political Violence violence does not exerts a significance effect on electoral outcome in Lagos State.

Hoi: Political Violence violence exerts a significance effect on electoral outcome in Lagos State.

1.6 Significance of the study

This research is significant in such a way that it examines the phenomenon of election malpractice and how it threatens the efforts at democratization in Nigeria’s fourth republic. It also x-rays the fundamental factors associated with election violence and ultimately recommends ways for obviating them. It will serve as an eye opener to researchers, government officials and general readers who truly intend to understand the impediment to democratic consolidation in Nigeria. Again, it will serve to sensitize the public and create awareness as to the destructive potentials of election malpractice towards the aspiration for democratization in Nigeria. Empirically, the study will contribute to body of knowledge and serve as a reference material to student and scholars who wishes to conduct further studies in related field.

1.7 Scope of the study

The scope of this study borders on the Nigeria 2023 General Elections in Lagos State. The study will further discuss the forms of political violence witnessed within Lagos State political space as well as the implication on political development and democratic consolidation. The participant for the study will cover residents of Eti-Osa Local government area in Lagos State.

1.8 Limitation of the study

The researchers encountered slight constraints while carrying out the study. The significant constraint was the scanty literature on the subject owing that political violence discourse is vast thus the researcher incurred more financial expenses and much time was required in sourcing for the relevant materials, literature, or information and in the process of data collection, which is why the researcher resorted to a limited choice of sample size covering only residents of Lagos State. Thus findings of this study cannot be used for generalization for other states within Nigeria. Additionally, the researcher will simultaneously engage in this study with other academic work will impede maximum devotion to the research. Howbeit, despite the constraint encountered during the research, all factors were downplayed in other to give the best and make the research successful.

1.9 Definition of terms

Election: An election is a formal group decision-making process by which a population chooses an individual or multiple individuals to hold public office. 

Election Malpractice: Election malpractice refers to all illegitimate acts carried out before, during and after elections in order to influence the outcomes of an election to the advantage of a particular political party and to the detriment of the other(s). Such illegitimate acts include rigging, thuggery, violence, intimidation, fraud, bribery, vote buying, misrepresentation and all sort of illegal manipulations hinged on altering the otherwise anticipated outcome of an election.

Political violence: political violence is any random or organized act that seeks to determine, delay, or otherwise influence an electoral process through threat, verbal intimidation, hate speech, disinformation, physical assault, forced “protection”, blackmail, destruction of property, or assassination.

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